This MLB season has been a mix of the predictable and the surprising. Traditional powerhouses like the New York Yankees have bounced back from down seasons, while unexpected leaders such as the Cleveland Guardians boast the best record in the American League, and the Atlanta Braves struggled with a 13-14 record in May.
On the other hand, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks are experiencing a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas sitting four games below that mark. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have recovered from slow starts to find themselves firmly in the competitive and crowded National League wild-card race.
From a player perspective, Kansas City Royals rookie pitcher Paul Skenes has taken the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson is competing with Aaron Judge for the early AL MVP race, and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran are establishing themselves as the future of their franchises. Notably, Shohei Ohtani continues to post impressive numbers at the plate despite missing the mound in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery last September.
What will the second half of the season hold? Who will dominate down the stretch? And what are the stakes for your team?
We’ve categorized all 30 teams into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, and Jorge Castillo to provide an outlook for the rest of the season for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff, and championship odds for all teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule, using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. These power ratings are derived from season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.