Nikola Jokić is having another historic season, putting up numbers that few—if any—players in NBA history have ever matched. Yet, despite his statistical dominance, he is unlikely to claim his fourth MVP award. The reason? The rise of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose brilliance—and fresh narrative—has taken center stage in the MVP race.
On Sunday, the Oklahoma City Thunder delivered a statement win over the Denver Nuggets, cruising to a 127-103 victory. The game was billed as a showdown between the league’s two top MVP candidates, and Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t disappoint. He torched the Nuggets for 40 points, marking his third straight 40-point game. Meanwhile, Jokić struggled, particularly after a hard fall, which seemed to impact his play. With the national spotlight on this game, the performance may have solidified Gilgeous-Alexander’s case in the eyes of voters.
Jokić has already won three MVPs in the past four seasons, a feat accomplished by only a handful of legends like Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird. The year he didn’t win—2023—was largely due to voter fatigue, as many were hesitant to place him in that exclusive club. Instead, the award went to Joel Embiid, despite Jokić leading the Nuggets to an eventual championship. This season, history may repeat itself.
MVP voting has often favored new faces when the race is tight. In 2017, Russell Westbrook won over Stephen Curry, preventing a potential three-peat. Before that, Kevin Durant edged out LeBron James, just as Derrick Rose did in 2011. Even Michael Jordan lost out to Charles Barkley in 1993. In close races, voters have traditionally leaned toward the fresher storyline, and that bodes well for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Statistically, Jokić is doing things no one has ever done. He ranks third in rebounds (12.9 per game), third in scoring (28.9), and second in assists (10.6), an all-around dominance unmatched in NBA history. But MVP voting isn’t just about stats—it’s also about team success. The Thunder currently hold a commanding lead over Denver in the standings, sitting at 52-11, just one game behind the league-best Cleveland Cavaliers. If OKC continues this pace, Gilgeous-Alexander’s role in their success will be undeniable.
National perception also plays a role, and Sunday’s game may have been a turning point. ESPN’s Tim Bontemps’ MVP straw poll already had Gilgeous-Alexander leading Jokić before the game. Then, after watching OKC’s star take over in the fourth quarter, Stephen A. Smith went as far as to declare the MVP race “over.” That kind of momentum is hard to ignore.
Of course, Jokić’s supporters can point to his recent 31-point, 21-rebound, 22-assist masterpiece against Phoenix—a stat line never seen before in NBA history. But as LeBron James has learned throughout his career, being the best player in the world doesn’t always translate to MVP wins. The narrative often dictates the outcome, and right now, Gilgeous-Alexander has the most compelling story.
As of now, betting odds heavily favor Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP, with Jokić trailing significantly. Barring an injury or a major shift in team performance, the Thunder star appears poised to take home his first MVP trophy. But as history has shown, the race for NBA supremacy never stays in one player’s hands for long.