The Toronto Blue Jays find themselves at a pivotal moment. With a 44-52 record post-All-Star Break, they are 14 games out of the AL East lead and 9.5 games away from a Wild Card spot. Their -66 run differential suggests their poor performance is not due to bad luck, but rather a reflection of their true capabilities. Consequently, 2024 already seems like a lost season, positioning the Blue Jays as potential sellers at the trade deadline.
This situation brings Vladimir Guerrero Jr. into focus. As the standout from a promising wave of Blue Jays prospects that revived the team’s relevance in 2020, Guerrero is now in his sixth season. He boasts an impressive resume, including four consecutive All-Star appearances (2021-2024), a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. Despite the team’s significant free-agent investments, they haven’t built a consistent contender around him. With Guerrero nearing free agency, Toronto faces a critical decision: trade him to jumpstart a rebuild or extend his contract.
Although Guerrero hasn’t quite matched the immense hype following his 2021 season, he remains a top-tier hitter. His 127 wRC+ over the past three seasons ranks 27th among 182 qualifying hitters, and his 72 home runs rank 27th as well. Only a few first basemen, including Freddie Freeman, Yandy Díaz, Paul Goldschmidt, and Pete Alonso, have been more valuable at the plate during this period. This season, Guerrero’s wRC+ is surpassed only by Freeman and Bryce Harper among first basemen. Statcast data suggests his performance is sustainable.
Hypothetically, if Guerrero joined the Yankees, he would instantly become their third-best hitter, forming a formidable 2-3-4 lineup with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Guerrero’s prowess against left-handed pitchers (.274/.384/.468) would significantly boost the Yankees’ lineup, which has struggled collectively against lefties. The recent injury to Jose Trevino could further facilitate Guerrero’s integration, with Ben Rice potentially moving behind the plate to accommodate Guerrero at first base.
However, this scenario is likely speculative. There is no indication that the Blue Jays are inclined to trade Guerrero, especially within the division. Even if they considered it, the Yankees would need to make an exceptionally strong offer, likely prioritizing a top-of-the-rotation starter or a player to fill a more pressing need over Guerrero.